Roulette Royale - Progressive Roulette from Microgaming

Roulette Royale is a progressive jackpot game on the Microgaming casino game platform. It's played just like a regular European roulette game, but it adds a progressive jackpot component. The jackpot is triggered by a $1 sidebet when you play the standard European roulette game. To win the jackpot, you have to hit the same number five times in immediate succession.

There are other bonus payouts for hitting the same number more than once. The game pays out on the bonus version like this:

Same number twice in a row pays out at $15.
Same number threee times in a row pays out at $200.
Same number four times in a row pays out at $3000.
And of course, the same number five times in a row pays out the jackpot.

Knowing this, you can easily calculate the odds of hitting a certain payout at Roulette Royale, and also the odds of hitting the progressive jackpot. Since theoretically the amount of the progressive jackpot could be any number, you could also calculate what the jackpot would have to be in order to make the $1 sidebet a positive expectation bet. In order to calculate this, the first thing you need to know is the odds of hitting any particular number on the roulette wheel. On a single zero roulette wheel there are 37 numbers - the numbers 1 through 36 plus the 0. This means your chances of hitting any particular number are 1/37, or 36 to 1, or 2.7%.

The chances of hitting the same number twice in a row would be calculated by multiplying the chance of hitting one number times the chance of hitting one number, or 1/37 X 1/37. This gives you a chance of hitting that number twice in a row 1/1369. So your chances of winning the $15 are 1368 to 1, and the bet pays out at 15 to 1. Since the payout is so much smaller than the actual odds of hitting it, this is a negative expectation bet.

The chances of hitting this same number three times in a row is 1/37 X 1/37 X 1/37, or 1/50,653. The bet pays off at 200 to 1 odds, but the actual odds of winning the bet are 50,652 to 1. Again, not a positive expectation bet.

The chance of hitting this same number four times in a row is 1/1,874,161. This bet seems to pay off very generously at 3000 to 1 odds, but the actual odds of winning the bet are 1,874,160 to 1. Not a positive expectation bet.

It gets interesting when you look at Roulette Royale's progressive jackpot. Since the progressive is theoretically unlimited, you could possibly have a positive expectation bet here, IF the jackpot were high enough. The odds of hitting the same number 5 times in a row on a single-zero roulette wheel are 69,343,956 to 1, so in order to make this a positive expectation bet, the jackpot would need to be $69,343,957 or higher.

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